米国の商業不動産市場 - 市場シェア分析、市場規模、業界動向、数値データおよび成長率予測レポート（2020年〜2029年） ‐ インフラ/建設/物流市場

COVID-19パンデミックは引き続きアメリカの不動産市場に影響を与えましたが、特定のセクターは2021年を通じて適度な回復の兆しを示し始めました。2021年第1四半期および第2四半期にCOVID-19ワクチンの展開と利用可能性が高まる中、多くのアメリカの州は経済の段階的な「再開」を完了し、在宅命令とロックダウン命令を終了し、不動産の収容制限を撤廃しました。これらの措置は、ロックダウン中に抑制されていた商品の需要を押し上げました。この需要により、特にホスピタリティを中心とした、以前に低迷していた市場のパフォーマンスが2021年中頃までにはわずかに増加しました。

産業部門は高い需要が予想されます

パンデミックの発生以来、工業リースは24%以上増加しました。市場の物件の供給が限られていることが続き、2021年には空室率が低下しました。歴史的に初めて、空室率は4%を下回り、2021年には3.8%が報告されました。前四半期からの強いリースに加えて、2021年を通じてテナントが物件を移動させたことで、ネット吸収率は前年比で81%以上増加しました。その年のネット吸収率は予想を大きく上回り、4億9630万平方フィート以上が記録されました。市場がさらに競争的になる中で、賃料も上昇傾向を続け、平均要望賃料は1平方フィートあたり7.11米ドルとなりました。また、前年対比で賃料は11.3%上昇しました。

シカゴのオフィスセクターは2021年を高い地位で終えました

• 1 イントロダクション

  • 1.1 調査の前提

  • 1.2 本調査の範囲

• 2 調査手法

• 3 エグゼクティブサマリー

• 4 市場についての洞察

  • 4.1 現状の経済シナリオと消費センチメント

  • 4.2 商業用不動産購入トレンド - 社会経済および人口動態的観点からの考察

  • 4.3 商業不動産セクターに対する政府の取り組みと規制の側面について

  • 4.4 既存および今後予定されているプロジェクトに関する洞察

  • 4.5 一般経済と不動産融資の金利レジームに関する洞察

  • 4.6 商業不動産セグメントにおける賃貸利回りの考察

  • 4.7 商業不動産市場における資本市場ペネトレーションおよびREITのプレゼンスの考察

  • 4.8 商業不動産における官民パートナーシップの洞察

  • 4.9 不動産（仲介、ソーシャルメディア、施設管理、プロパティマネジメント）におけるテクノロジーとスタートアップへの洞察

  • 4.10 COVID-19の市場インパクト

• 5 市場ダイナミクス

  • 5.1 促進要因

  • 5.2 抑制要因

  • 5.3 市場機会

  • 5.4 業界魅力度 - ポーターのファイブフォース分析

    • 5.4.1 サプライヤーの交渉力

    • 5.4.2 消費者の交渉力

    • 5.4.3 新規参入の脅威

    • 5.4.4 代替品の脅威

    • 5.4.5 競合・競争状況の激しさ

• 6 市場セグメンテーション

  • 6.1 タイプ別

    • 6.1.1 事業所一覧

    • 6.1.2 リテール

    • 6.1.3 産業

    • 6.1.4 ロジスティクス

    • 6.1.5 マルチファミリ

    • 6.1.6 ホスピタリティ

  • 6.2 キーシティによる

    • 6.2.1 ニューヨーク

    • 6.2.2 シカゴ

    • 6.2.3 ロサンゼルス

    • 6.2.4 サンフランシスコ

    • 6.2.5 ボストン

    • 6.2.6 デンバー

    • 6.2.7 ヒューストン

    • 6.2.8 フェニックス

    • 6.2.9 アトランタ

    • 6.2.10 ソルトレイクシティ

• 7 競合情勢

  • 7.1 Market Concentration Overview

  • 7.2 企業プロファイル

    • 7.2.1 Shannon-Waltchack

    • 7.2.2 Progressive Real Estate Partners

    • 7.2.3 John Propp Commercial Group

    • 7.2.4 Mohr Partners

    • 7.2.5 Franklin Street

    • 7.2.6 Simon Property Group

    • 7.2.7 RE/MAX

    • 7.2.8 Century 21

    • 7.2.9 Keller Williams Realty Inc

    • 7.2.10 Coldwell Banker

    • 7.2.11 ERA Real Estate

    • 7.2.12 Zumbly

    • 7.2.13 Lamudi

    • 7.2.14 Crexi

    • 7.2.15 Hightower

    • 7.2.16 HqO*

• 8 市場の将来性とアナリストの提言

• 9 付録

• 10 免責事項

• 11 ご参考

The United States Commercial Real Estate Market size in terms of transaction value is expected to grow from USD 1.66 trillion in 2024 to USD 1.89 trillion by 2029, at a CAGR of 2.61% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

While the COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact the US real estate market, specific sectors began to show signs of moderate recovery throughout 2021. With the deployment and increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines during Q1 and Q2 2021, many US states completed phased "re-openings" of their economies, ending stay-at-home and lockdown orders and eliminating real estate capacity restrictions. These measures drove up the consumer demand for goods and services, which was subdued throughout the lockdown. This demand resulted in a modest increase in performance among previously-depressed markets, particularly hospitality, through mid-2021.

Driven by a marked increase in leisure travel, the monthly hotel occupancy rate in the country returned to near pre-pandemic levels during the summer of 2021, with a 69.6% monthly occupancy rate by the end of July, the highest since August 2019.

Retail vacancy levels decreased slightly through mid-2021, continuing a slightly encouraging downward trend that began in Q4 2020. Similarly, a push toward the end of remote work in many industries resulted in a significant quarterly decrease in the rate of new vacancies in Q2 2021.

Despite these positive developments, the overall vacancy levels for the hotel and office sectors remain above pre-pandemic levels, due in part to continued remote work and the lack of a rebound in business travel due to the pandemic. For example, the total US hotel occupancy rate by the end of Q2 2021 was down by 17% compared to Q2 2019. Similarly, the overall national office vacancy level increased by 50 basis points in Q2 2021 to 16.5%. This is just below the peak vacancy level of 16.8%, which was recorded following the global financial crisis of 2008. Based on the current speeds of increase in occupancy levels, a full recovery in either sector is not expected until late 2022.

In the retail sector, despite the decreases evidenced in Q1 and Q2 2021, vacancy levels remain at historic highs due to the continued shift in consumer sentiment towards online shopping and rising inflation resulting in part from the pandemic.

US Commercial Real Estate Market Trends

Industrial Sector Expected to Record High Demand

The US commercial real estate market ended 2021 with unprecedented demand, exceptionally low vacancy rates, and record-setting rental growth. Though the supply chain crisis added pressure to many economic factors, the industrial sector benefited from supply chain reconfigurations. While industry demand shifted away from e-commerce in 2021, the existing online shopping practices drove up the demand for 3PL and logistics and distribution.

Since the onset of the pandemic, industrial leasing has increased by more than 24%. The scarce availability of properties in the market continued to push vacancy down in 2021. For the first time in history, vacancy dropped below the 4% threshold, with a vacancy rate of 3.8% reported in 2021. With the strong leasing from prior quarters and tenants shifting properties throughout 2021, the net absorption increased by more than 81% year-over-year. The net absorption significantly exceeded expectations that year, recording over 496.3 million sq. ft. Rents also continued to trend upward as the market grew even more competitive, with the average asking rate at USD 7.11 per sq. ft. Also, the year-over-year rent was up by 11.3%.

Chicago's Office Sector Closed 2021 on a High

After much turbulence, the Chicago suburban office market closed 2021 on a high after realizing year-over-year growth in new lease transactions and improved levels of capital market activity. Overall, leasing realized a slight uptick quarter-over-quarter, but the total activity realized throughout the year grew 14% compared to 2020. The average term increased consecutively over the last three quarters, as tenants became more comfortable signing longer-term deals in the second half of the year. The current average is 66 months, which remains 13% below pre-pandemic standards. While new leasing grew over the course of the year, tenants are disproportionately favoring Class A offices, which accounted for nearly 70% of the new leases executed in 2021.

The overall absorption levels began to plateau as Q4 realized -50,807 sq. ft of absorption. The largest move-outs came from AT&T at 903 National Pkwy and Lake Forest Graduate School at 1300 E Woodfield for 106,380 sq.ft and 56,000 sq.ft, respectively. Much the like the rest of the nation, the Class B office inventory continued to underperform. This was due to large tenant downsizes and a shift in preference to high-quality Class A buildings in order to motivate employees to return to physical workplaces.

Property sales grew substantially in the second half of the year after nine buildings traded hands from Q3 to Q4. A total of 14 buildings were sold in 2021 for just over USD 0.5 billion in transactional volume, which is slightly lower than the usual levels. The largest transaction closed in Deerfield after the four-building 700,000 sq. ft campus, Corporate 500, closed for USD 178 million or USD 256 per square feet. The transaction marked the highest sale price recorded over the last three years.

US Commercial Real Estate Industry Overview

Commercial real estate in the United States has a low level of market share concentration. The industry is extremely diverse and covers a large sector of the economy. Commercial real estate activity has a medium level of capital intensity. The competition among providers may continue to drive market pricing and contractual terms, creating aggressive leasing scenarios. The key players in the market are Simon Property Group, Franklin Street, Shannon-Waltchack, and Progressive Real Estate Partners.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

• 1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions

  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

• 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 4 MARKET INSIGHTS

  • 4.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment

  • 4.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demographic Insights

  • 4.3 Government Initiatives for and Regulatory Aspects of the Commercial Real Estate Sector

  • 4.4 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects

  • 4.5 Insights into Interest Rate Regime for General Economy and Real Estate Lending

  • 4.6 Insights into Rental Yields in the Commercial Real Estate Segment

  • 4.7 Insights into Capital Market Penetration and REIT Presence in Commercial Real Estate

  • 4.8 Insights into Public-private Partnerships in Commercial Real Estate

  • 4.9 Insights into Technologies and Startups in Real Estate (broking, social media, facility management, property management)

  • 4.10 Impact of COVID-19 on the Market

• 5 MARKET DYNAMICS

  • 5.1 Drivers

  • 5.2 Restraints

  • 5.3 Opportunities

  • 5.4 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis

    • 5.4.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers

    • 5.4.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers

    • 5.4.3 Threat of New Entrants

    • 5.4.4 Threat of Substitutes

    • 5.4.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

• 6 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 6.1 By Type

    • 6.1.1 Offices

    • 6.1.2 Retail

    • 6.1.3 Industrial

    • 6.1.4 Logistics

    • 6.1.5 Multi-family

    • 6.1.6 Hospitality

  • 6.2 By Key City

    • 6.2.1 New York

    • 6.2.2 Chicago

    • 6.2.3 Los Angeles

    • 6.2.4 San Francisco

    • 6.2.5 Boston

    • 6.2.6 Denver

    • 6.2.7 Houston

    • 6.2.8 Phoenix

    • 6.2.9 Atlanta

    • 6.2.10 Salt Lake City

• 7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 7.1 Market Concentration Overview

  • 7.2 Company Profiles

    • 7.2.1 Shannon-Waltchack

    • 7.2.2 Progressive Real Estate Partners

    • 7.2.3 John Propp Commercial Group

    • 7.2.4 Mohr Partners

    • 7.2.5 Franklin Street

    • 7.2.6 Simon Property Group

    • 7.2.7 RE/MAX

    • 7.2.8 Century 21

    • 7.2.9 Keller Williams Realty Inc

    • 7.2.10 Coldwell Banker

    • 7.2.11 ERA Real Estate

    • 7.2.12 Zumbly

    • 7.2.13 Lamudi

    • 7.2.14 Crexi

    • 7.2.15 Hightower

    • 7.2.16 HqO*

• 8 FUTURE OF THE MARKET AND ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS

• 9 APPENDIX

• 10 DISCLAIMER

• 11 ABOUT US